Why Procurement Strategy Is Becoming as Critical as Project Design

For much of the last solar cycle, competitiveness was driven primarily by design optimisation, EPC efficiency, and €/Wp pricing. Procurement was often treated as a late-stage execution task.

That logic is shifting.

As we move toward 2026, utility-scale and large C&I projects are entering a phase where procurement strategy is becoming as critical as project design itself—not because supply is disappearing, but because the underlying cost, production, and allocation dynamics have structurally changed.

What the upstream data is telling us

Over the past 12 months, several upstream indicators have moved sharply and, importantly, in parallel.

• Silver, a critical input for cell metallisation in high-efficiency technologies, reached historic nominal levels close to USD 72/oz, up nearly 160% year-on-year. At these levels, cost absorption becomes increasingly difficult, particularly for N-type and advanced cell architectures.

• Polysilicon, after a prolonged period of oversupply, has undergone a rapid correction. Public data indicates price increases of roughly 48% in the final months of 2025, with spot quotations moving higher thereafter. This reflects coordinated production discipline and a reassertion of structural cost floors across the value chain.

• Aluminum, often underestimated in module discussions, has quietly become another pressure point. LME prices approaching USD 2,970/ton (around +18% quarter-on-quarter) are materially impacting frame costs and landed pricing.

• Currency movements have added a further layer. The appreciation of the RMB toward the 7.0 level against the USD compounds upstream inflation for export-oriented manufacturing.

Individually, each of these factors is manageable.Taken together, they point to a synchronised cost reset, not a short-term fluctuation.

From “best price” to “best execution”

For much of the last cycle, project competitiveness was often reduced to a simple €/Wp discussion.

That logic is changing.

What we are increasingly seeing is:

• fewer genuinely available production slots for large-format modules (700W+ class),

• a growing gap between indicative availability and secured production, and

• greater sensitivity of project IRRs to procurement timing, rather than EPC efficiency alone.

In this environment, execution certainty and bankability are becoming decisive.

Utility-scale reality: production matters

Large-format modules in the 700W+ class are now standard for utility-scale ground-mounted projects.

However, access to these products—at the right time and with the right documentation—depends less on spot availability and more on:

• early engagement,

• alignment with manufacturing schedules, and

• procurement structures that lenders are comfortable underwriting.

In other words, the key question is no longer “What is the lowest price?”It is “Can the supply be executed, on time, and remain bankable?”

What this means for developers and EPCs

As pipelines mature into Wave 7 and Wave 8 projects, a clear advantage is emerging for teams that:

• treat procurement as a strategic workstream, not a late-stage task,

• engage early on production planning for utility-scale volumes, and

• prioritise reliability, documentation, and lender acceptance over short-term price optics.

The market is not “tight” in absolute terms—but it is becoming selective.

Final thought

Solar remains one of the most competitive generation technologies globally.What changes from cycle to cycle is where risk concentrates.

As we head into 2026, that risk is shifting upstream—into production timing, allocation, and execution certainty.Recognising that shift early is becoming one of the defining advantages for utility-scale projects.

For further discussion or project-specific considerations, you can reach us at info@sustainergysolar.com